How the United States Is Lifting Sanctions Against Belarus
On September 16, 25 prisoners were pardoned in Belarus. A week earlier, Aleksandr Lukashenko released 52 prisoners at the request of US President Donald Trump. Among them was one of the long-time leaders of the Belarusian opposition, M. Statkevich, a candidate for the Belarusian presidency in 2010, who was again imprisoned for refusing to leave the country. In response to the release, Washington partially lifted sanctions on the Belarusian state carrier Belavia.
The pardon of 31 Ukrainian citizens in November at the request of Donald Trump and the release of 123 Belarusian political prisoners on December 13, including Ukrainians convicted under various articles, gives the impression of a cynical “trade in human destinies”, however cruel this idea may seem. Among those released were well-known opposition figures, human rights activists, and journalists from Belarus (O. Belyatsky, P. Severinets, V. Babariko, M. Kolesnikova, M. Znak, O. Feduta, M. Zolotova, and others), whom the regime expelled from the country, depriving them of their civil rights in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Speaking at the 7th session of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly on December 18, A. Lukashenko ruled out the possibility of the released persons returning to their homeland. Belarusian authorities not only do not allow political emigrants to return to the country and participate in domestic political life, but continue to persecute them and exert pressure on them abroad. Thus, the regime is finally abandoning its policy of national reconciliation and relies on continued harsh domination and tightening of informational and administrative control over society.
In an interview after his release, Nobel Prize laureate A. Bialiatski pointed out that in fact, everyone was “exchanged for potash… for one ton of potash… Without an end to repression and further democratic changes in the country, such an exchange makes no sense… If politicians and human rights activists are in prison in Belarus, isn’t that a clear signal that the country has huge human rights problems, that it is a dictatorship?!” [1].
Currently, the Belarusian opposition human rights center Viasna has reported new cases of politically motivated imprisonment accompanied by violations of the right to a fair trial. Thus, the “exchange fund” in Belarus is growing.
The regime’s insistence on continuing the Belarusian-American negotiation process in order to obtain substantial dividends indicates Lukashenko’s desperate desire to be useful to the American administration and to use the chance to emerge from isolation, at least partially. In this way, official Minsk is trying to lay a solid foundation for future negotiations with Washington, despite the fact that the implementation of Lukashenko’s ambitious plans may not yield the desired results, particularly with regard to the restoration of diplomatic relations between the countries.
Thus, the D. Trump administration can claim another victory in the release of political prisoners. In return, Belarus has secured an exemption from US sanctions for its key export earner, the potash sector, which opens up the prospect of improving Minsk’s financial situation.
On December 15, the US Treasury published a corresponding regulatory document – a general license. According to this document, the license is issued for transactions with three legal entities: the Belarusian Potash Company, Belaruskali, and the Ukrainian company AGROROZKVIT LLC, which was previously used for trading Belarusian potash fertilizers on the Ukrainian market. In addition, the license authorizes transactions with all companies in which the three legal entities listed above hold a 50 % or greater stake. The license does not provide for the unblocking of any property/assets blocked under sanctions against Belarus. Besides, it indicates that restrictions on actions involving other sanctioned persons, with the exception of the three companies mentioned, remain in force. Thus, the USA is gradually easing its sanctions regime. Each action has a specific isolated effect, and there is still a long way to go before sanctions against Belarus as a whole are lifted.
The next steps on the part of the USA may be to exclude Belarusian companies in the financial sector from the sanctions lists and further lift sanctions restrictions in exchange for the release of more prisoners, including Polish citizens – an issue that was not resolved this time, despite expectations.
The measures taken by the USA to lift sanctions facilitate international settlements, access to foreign technologies, and eliminate the risks of secondary sanctions in relations with third parties. However, this does not remove the most important obstacle to Belarusian potash exports – the lack of access to the export infrastructure of Lithuanian and Latvian ports on the Baltic Sea, which is linked to anti-Belarusian sanctions imposed by the EU and Lithuania. In its relations with neighbouring countries, the Belarusian regime continues to follow the kremlin’s course of escalation.
As expected, the temporary normalisation of relations with Poland proved fragile and was broken. Polish border guards discovered a large group of illegal migrants who had entered the country through a specially dug tunnel. It is likely that the next round of negotiations with the USA will focus on ending the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border. The release of more prisoners, including Polish citizens, will be the subject of new bargaining in exchange for the removal of Belarusian financial sector companies from the sanctions lists.
In terms of relations with the USA, Lukashenko continues to focus on a “grand bargain” based on the formula of “the release and deportation of all political prisoners from Belarus in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions” and considers the conclusion of such an agreement to be a realistic prospect. Among other things, the Belarusian side is offering the D. Trump administration to acquire “Nadra Nizhyn” JSC and become a player in the Belarusian and international potash fertilizer market.
At present, the American side’s tactic of taking consistent steps to continue the negotiation process with Minsk, backed by Russia, is generally leading to increased pressure on the EU and undermining the European sanctions policy against Belarus and Russia, introduced after 2020, and especially after 2022.
In fact, these steps have a much broader strategic context and fit perfectly into the context of the new US National Security Strategy, paving the way for a possible review of European policy towards Belarus. The US administration’s policy towards Belarus does not contribute to strengthening the EU’s internal unity and negates the recognition of Belarus as Russia’s co-aggressor in the war against Ukraine.
[1] https://charter97.org/ru/news/2025/12/20/667308/
Maria Hutsalo,
expert, PhD
